Target Pregnancy Prediction

Source

Charles Duhigg, “How Companies Learn Your Secrets,” New York Times Magazine, February 16, 2012.

How It Worked

Target statistician Andrew Pole tasked with identifying pregnant customers from purchase data. Target assigned each customer a “Guest ID” linked to credit card, loyalty card (TargetRed), name, email, and purchase history.

Pole identified ~25 products whose purchase patterns correlated with pregnancy stages: unscented lotion, supplements (calcium, magnesium, zinc), cotton balls, hand sanitizers, washcloths.

Each customer received a “pregnancy prediction” score and estimated due date, enabling trimester-specific coupons.

The Anecdote

A man in Minneapolis complained to Target manager that his teenage daughter received mailers for baby clothes and cribs. When the manager called to apologize days later, the father said he had spoken with his daughter — she was in fact pregnant. (Reported by Duhigg as relayed by Target employee; Target has neither confirmed nor denied the specific incident.)

Target’s Response

Target learned to disguise targeted ads by mixing baby-product coupons with unrelated items (lawn mowers, wine glasses) so customers would not realize the company had inferred their pregnancy.

Source

• NYT Magazine, February 16, 2012
• Charles Duhigg, “The Power of Habit” (2012)